Henry Huiyao Wang: Modi’s China visit, Putin’s attendance highlight SCO’s role

CCG President tells Hong Kong’s Television Broadcasts Limited that China, India and others could take the lead in trade war responses, Ukraine and Middle East median.

The 25th Meeting of the Council of Heads of State of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) will be held in Tianjin from August 31 to September 1, 2025. This will be the fifth time China has hosted the SCO Summit and the largest since the organisation’s founding.

On August 19, Henry Huiyao Wang, Founder and President of the Centre for China and Globalisation (CCG), gave an interview to Hong Kong’s Television Broadcasts Limited (TVB), one of the world’s largest commercial Chinese programme producers. He analysed the key issues likely to be discussed at the upcoming Tianjin Summit, including global security, trade frictions, economic cooperation, and major regional relations.

The following is a translation based on a transcript of the original Chinese interview, which remains available on CCG’s official WeChat blog.

SCO Tianjin Summit: Get Ready for Big Moments

TVB: What do you consider the key areas that deserve particular attention at this year’s SCO Summit?

Henry Huiyao Wang: The SCO has become an important force in promoting regional and global harmony. In the face of global trade frictions, the question arises of how to respond effectively. On issues such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the Israel-Palestine conflict, and persistent instability worldwide, especially the recent escalation in the Middle East, the SCO should articulate its views and positions. For this reason, the statements and positions to be presented at this year’s Summit on these major international issues warrant particular attention.

Meanwhile, the attendance of both Chinese and Indian leaders at the SCO Summit has drawn significant attention, particularly as Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi is visiting China for the first time in seven years. This development alone underscores the importance of the event. Additionally, given the ongoing tensions between India and Pakistan, the simultaneous presence of both countries’ leaders on this international platform is also worthy of close observation.

Moreover, the Summit will witness the participation of leaders from an even greater number of countries. It is particularly noteworthy that a significant portion of these leaders will remain in China after the meeting to attend the military parade on September 3, commemorating the 80th anniversary of the victory in the Chinese People’s War of Resistance Against Japanese Aggression and the World Anti-Fascist War. This series of events highlights the importance of the SCO and its increasingly prominent role in a multipolar world.

TVB: Given that economic and trade wars, as just mentioned, are likely to be major topics of discussion at this summit, what potential consensus do you believe participating countries could reach on this issue, especially against the backdrop of the U.S. employing tariff threats and hegemonic practices?

Henry Huiyao Wang: Since taking office, Trump has abandoned multilateralism in favour of unilateral measures. He has demanded tariff revisions from more than 100 countries and imposed substantial increases on many of them. Tariffs have risen sharply on imports from the European Union, Japan, South Korea, and several ASEAN member states. Relations with China remain in a state of repeated suspension, with both sides again postponing the imposition of 24% tariffs for another 90 days. After the recent talks in Stockholm, this uncertainty continues.

I believe the future course will depend on how different nations choose to respond. China’s approach has been to refuse intimidation, to stand firm in resistance, and to counter U.S. unilateral sanctions with corresponding measures. This approach has, to some extent, set an important example for the world. In this regard, if countries of the Global South, such as Brazil, South Africa, and India (which itself remains in a stalemate with the United States), can draw lessons from China’s experience, it could significantly strengthen collective efforts to resist unilateralism and trade coercion.

China has played a leading role in responding to the tariff war. At the same time, the future world requires greater efforts to uphold multilateralism. Although the World Trade Organisation (WTO) has not yet been able to fully perform its functions, China can play an even more significant role in promoting regional multilateralism, such as in the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP).

SCO’s Success Code: Unity Despite Divergence

TVB: Focusing on the SCO as a mechanism, in which areas must it strengthen unity to address challenges from the U.S.?

Henry Huiyao Wang: First and foremost, the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) is a highly significant platform. Unlike U.S.-led organisations such as NATO, the SCO is marked by strong inclusiveness, bringing together members such as India, the Central Asian states, Russia, and China. Although these countries differ in their social systems and models of governance, the SCO does not create divisions along ideological lines. This contrasts sharply with the Group of Seven (G7), which frequently frames its agenda around the narrative of “democracy versus autocracy.” By comparison, the SCO emphasises security, shared prosperity, and common development, with economic globalisation at the core of its mission. The greatest strength of this coalition of states lies in its vast economic potential and broad prospects for future growth.

SCO is not just an economic community but rather a new platform for multilateral collaboration. As the organisation continues to evolve, its member states are actively exploring innovative models of cooperation. Last year’s “Shanghai Cooperation Organisation Plus” meeting in Astana, Kazakhstan, for instance, yielded many constructive proposals aimed at enhancing regional cooperation. These efforts have collectively charted a clear course for the organisation’s future development.

Therefore, I believe the SCO can progressively evolve into a more multilateral platform for regional economic and trade cooperation. This would not only help deepen economic ties among member states but also provide an effective means to collectively address the unilateralism and trade protectionism currently championed by the United States. From this perspective, the SCO carries a significant mission in its future development.

TVB: However, if, as you just mentioned, SCO member states have differences in ideology and systems, would reaching consensus on areas like trade and tariffs face significant difficulties? Is there a possibility that each country might pursue its own agenda, leading to fragmented positions?

Henry Huiyao Wang: Indeed, such a scenario cannot be ruled out. Despite considerable differences in national values, the key advantage is that countries generally follow the principle of seeking benefit and avoiding harm, and all are in pursuit of common interests. In this sense, whether between China and Russia, China and India, China and the Central Asian states, or even China and Iran, there are substantial shared interests. By aligning these interests, member states can forge closer bonds.

In fact, the WTO is an international organisation that encompasses countries with diverse ideologies, and the SCO possesses similar potential. In the future, the SCO could not only expand its membership but also enhance its economic appeal by promoting the establishment of development zones and economic cooperation areas among member states. Meanwhile, as Chinese companies accelerate their “going global” strategy, they have been widely welcomed across SCO nations, laying a solid foundation for deeper collaboration within the organisation.

Even with ideological differences, economic integration can help reduce mutual distrust and thereby enhance bilateral and multilateral cooperation. This approach, in turn, helps bridge divides and strengthen mutual trust. Taking China-India relations as an example, the two economies are highly complementary. While India rivals China in terms of population size, it still has vast development potential in areas such as infrastructure, rural development, the digital economy, environmental protection, and green energy, all fields where China possesses significant advantages. There is also substantial potential for collaboration in sectors like real estate.

If the SCO can reach consensus in these areas, it will not only help stabilise relations among member states but also deepen China’s cooperation with relevant countries. More importantly, it could align with the Belt and Road Initiative, thereby playing a critically important role.

TVB: Is it possible for the member states to unite and form an alliance to counterbalance the United States?

Henry Huiyao Wang: At present, it appears that countries such as India and some other member states do not necessarily endorse the idea of uniting the SCO into an anti-U.S. alliance. In fact, China has never advanced such a proposal. China has consistently stressed that the SCO adheres to principles of “non-alignment, non-confrontation with other countries, and openness.” This has been the guiding philosophy of the organisation since its founding and throughout its development.

However, SCO member states do share common security needs. In areas such as counterterrorism, combating extremism, addressing cyber attacks, and preventing threats to space security, the SCO is well-positioned to facilitate connectivity and the sharing of resources and intelligence. When necessary, if a member state faces external threats, the organisation can also respond through information exchange, mutual support, and even joint actions, provided that such efforts align with just and legitimate causes.

From this perspective, the SCO already possesses a solid foundation and institutional capacity for cooperation. It has the potential to evolve not only into a more multilateral platform for economic collaboration but also into a framework for security cooperation, and may even expand into a comprehensive multilateral mechanism in the future. In my view, the SCO is not necessarily oriented against any third party or designed to confront any specific nation. Instead, it is more likely to grow into a significant platform guided by principles of self-defence and win-win cooperation.

TVB: Member states can deepen their cooperation in finance and trade.

Henry Huiyao Wang: Absolutely, I believe this is entirely feasible. For instance, various new financial experiments could be explored, including the possibility of using currencies other than the U.S. dollar for trade settlements among SCO member states. Additionally, the SCO could consider establishing its own economic development zones. In this process, the role of a “leading engine” is crucial. As the largest economy within the organisation, China is undoubtedly positioned to take on significant responsibility in guiding these efforts.

This, indeed, encapsulates the significance of the SCO as I understand it. It should aim to expand the “pie” through economic cooperation and, by closely interlinking interests, promote not only a shared future but also a community of common interests among member states. On this foundation, it is possible to gradually bridge differences in ideology and values, thereby safeguarding common security, development, and prosperity.

Putin and Modi Attend: How Will China Play a Key Role

TVB: A major highlight this year is President Putin’s attendance at the SCO Summit. In your opinion, how can China and Russia further enhance their cooperation following this meeting?

Henry Huiyao Wang: The Russia-Ukraine war has now dragged on for three and a half years, and President Putin has come to realise this is a protracted war of attrition. Russia is not only confronting Ukraine but is effectively locked in a standoff with the whole of Europe and even the Western world. Under such circumstances, Russia is experiencing growing fatigue and faces increasing difficulty in sustaining the confrontation indefinitely.

In a sense, it is the maintenance of normal trade relations by SCO countries such as China and India with Russia that has prevented the Russian economy from collapsing swiftly under Western sanctions. I believe Putin must be profoundly grateful for this.

Recently, I published an article in Foreign Policy noting that the U.S. President currently seeks to promote peace talks and mediation regarding the Ukraine issue. He has already invited Zelenskyy and several European Union leaders to meet with Putin in Washington. If negotiations indeed move forward and lead to an agreement, the discussion would likely extend to the deployment of peacekeeping forces after a potential border freeze. Clearly, such peacekeeping forces cannot be entirely provided by the EU. The United States has also explicitly stated that it will not deploy troops, meaning the mission would require a joint force comprising both EU and non-EU contributors. The question then arises: where would these non-EU forces come from? They would most likely be drawn from SCO member states, such as China, India, and Pakistan.

When Putin eventually enters genuine negotiations with the U.S. President, the Ukrainian President, and European Union leaders, a critical question will emerge: While Ukraine would be backed by numerous EU countries in potential peacekeeping operations, who would stand behind Russia? After three and a half years of conflict, Putin is well aware that the root of this war lies in NATO’s eastward expansion. Hence, he is unlikely to accept the redeployment of NATO or European troops near the contested border. A more realistic solution would be a United Nations-led peacekeeping force, composed of troops from both EU and SCO member states, working together to maintain a new ceasefire line between Russia and Ukraine. In my view, this may be exactly what Putin will urgently need moving forward.

TVB: Two weeks after the recent U.S.-Russia summit, the leaders of China and Russia are also scheduled to meet. Do you believe China can play a greater role in facilitating a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine?

Henry Huiyao Wang: I believe China is indeed well-positioned to play a greater role at this stage. As a permanent member of the UN Security Council, China carries no historical burden in this conflict. At the same time, it is a major trading partner of both Russia and Ukraine and maintains constructive relations with each. This places China in a particularly important position, especially with regard to offering potential security guarantees.

Even if Russia and Ukraine eventually reach an agreement, the question of who can provide credible guarantees remains central. While the United States, the European Union, or NATO could theoretically offer such guarantees, it is uncertain whether Putin would fully accept or trust them. However, if the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, particularly China and India, were to play a role in the guarantee mechanism, it would carry substantial weight and would be far more likely to be accepted by Putin.

Therefore, I am convinced that SCO countries, particularly China and India, can play crucial roles in ultimately achieving a peaceful resolution to the Russia-Ukraine conflict.

TVB: The outcome could potentially be more significant than what a standalone meeting between Trump and Putin might achieve.

Henry Huiyao Wang: That is entirely possible. In my article for Foreign Policy, I proposed the idea of convening a seven-party talk. In fact, such talks could be held in Beijing. The five permanent members of the UN Security Council, along with the European Union, Ukraine, and even India, could form an eight-party dialogue hosted in China. This initiative would aim to promote a resolution to the Russia-Ukraine conflict while also addressing future reconstruction efforts in Ukraine.

China possesses significant advantages in global infrastructure development and could provide loans to Ukraine through the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB). While the United States has already signed major mineral agreements with Ukraine, I believe China’s participation in promoting Ukraine’s reconstruction would hold highly positive implications for Sino-American cooperation in jointly advancing a resolution to the Ukraine issue.

TVB: Another focal point of this summit is Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who is visiting China after a seven-year interval. What do you believe this signifies?

Henry Huiyao Wang: I believe the international situation has changed significantly. At the same time, India, a nation with deep pride in its history and culture, has consistently upheld a policy of “strategic autonomy.” Recently, however, the United States imposed restrictions on India, levying additional tariffs on Indian exports on the grounds that it had “directly or indirectly imported Russian oil.” Such measures are, in essence, unfair, as normal trade should not be subject to sanctions. This episode serves as a clear warning to India: even in the context of friendly relations with the United States, countries must still strive to maintain balance in their dealings with major powers.

As a close neighbour and the world’s second-largest economy, maintaining positive relations with China offers numerous benefits for India. At the same time, India is not a country that places excessive emphasis on ideology. In my view, India has ample reason to advance its relationship with China. I recently attended the Indian Embassy’s Independence Day reception, where the Indian Ambassador noted that in 1950, India was the first non-socialist country to establish diplomatic relations with the newly founded People’s Republic of China. This year marks the 75th anniversary of diplomatic ties between India and China, which carries profound historical significance.

The combined population of China and India amounts to approximately 2.8 billion people, accounting for over one-third of the global total. Should the two countries pursue collaboration in the future, it would carry significant strategic implications, contributing to a more stable and substantiated multipolar world.

TVB: Is this also because they have come to realise that the United States, the “big brother,” is not entirely reliable, prompting them to seek stronger ties with China?

Henry Huiyao Wang: India has clearly adopted a pragmatic approach. There was once a perception that if China-U.S. relations grew tense, India could manoeuvre between the two sides and gain certain advantages. In reality, however, the United States has continued to prioritise its own interests at critical moments, regardless of partnerships or alliances. This has led India to recognise that “a close neighbour is more valuable than a distant relative,” highlighting the importance of strengthening its relationship with China.

The current timing is highly significant. Foreign Minister Wang Yi’s recent visit to India has provided an opportunity for enhanced cooperation between these two major countries. Should China and India join hands, they could play a much greater role in international affairs. Furthermore, China’s strengths in market capacity, infrastructure development, green energy, digital economy, and various products, particularly new energy vehicles (NEVs), hold substantial potential in India. With NEV penetration in India standing at only around 1%, compared to over 45% in China, there is clearly vast room for collaboration.

If China and India, each with a population of 1.4 billion, can join hands and set aside their disputes, they would achieve remarkable outcomes in promoting regional and global peace.

TVB: In which areas could breakthroughs be achieved between China and India, and how can cooperation be further strengthened?

Henry Huiyao Wang: There are many areas where China and India could make breakthroughs. First, if conditions permit, the meeting of the leaders of China and India could produce a joint statement. For example, both sides could explore ways to expand bilateral trade, advance negotiations on a possible free trade agreement, or even consider India’s accession to the RCEP. Another step would be to increase flights between the two countries. While services are reportedly set to resume in September, it would be desirable to see more routes opened.

Furthermore, the two countries could promote greater openness in bilateral tourism, ease visa policies, and expand opportunities for Indian students to study in China. Before the pandemic, a large number of Indian students pursued education in China, though that number has since declined. China could also grant India broader access to its educational and other competitive resources. In addition, cooperation in new energy, environmental protection, and other sectors holds considerable promise.

Moreover, China and India can collaborate more closely on the global stage, such as within the WTO, the United Nations, and other multilateral platforms. India has now become the world’s fourth-largest economy and is expected to overtake Germany to rank third within the next two to three years. Combined, the economic scale of China and India would surpass that of the United States. Cooperation between the “Dragon and the Elephant” may well serve as a stabiliser, an anchor, and a ballast for the future world order. In the long run, China-India relations carry profoundly important strategic significance.

TVB: Following this event, do you believe India will move closer to China in the long run, or will it continue to prioritise its own strategic calculations?

Henry Huiyao Wang: In a sense, India is a relatively independent and “non-aligned” nation. It cannot be expected to act entirely in line with China, but it is likely to maintain a relatively neutral stance. Nor would it serve China’s interests for India to lean wholly to one side in relations among major powers. That said, it would be highly beneficial if India were to sustain positive relations with China, especially through deeper bilateral cooperation.

At the same time, China can play a balancing role in the tensions between India and Pakistan. Having previously mediated between Saudi Arabia and Iran, as well as in issues involving Afghanistan and Pakistan, China is also well-positioned to help resolve differences between Pakistan and India. In this sense, China can take on a more significant role in promoting peace, encouraging dialogue, and facilitating reconciliation. Improving and fostering India-Pakistan relations would also serve as a crucial measure for China to enhance regional security.

TVB: This summit also marks the first meeting between the leaders of India and Pakistan since the outbreak of conflict between the two countries.

Henry Huiyao Wang: Indeed, both Indian and Pakistani leaders will visit China on this occasion, marking their first trips to the country since the outbreak of conflicts between the two nations. The platform provided by China holds considerable appeal for them and may facilitate new breakthroughs. I am confident that Chinese leadership will play a greater role in mediating dialogue and promoting reconciliation between India and Pakistan, thereby advancing regional peace. Should both countries gain more support from China throughout this process, it would further improve Sino-Indian and Sino-Pakistani relations. Such progress would contribute to peace and stability in the South Asian subcontinent and generate positive ripple effects for Northeast Asia.

TVB: Another point to note is that the Iranian president will also be visiting Tianjin. In light of the recent U.S. strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, do you think this will prompt Iran to pursue closer cooperation with China, particularly as it looks to acquire Chinese military equipment after observing the India-Pakistan conflict?

Henry Huiyao Wang: I believe this is entirely possible. The Iranian president’s visit highlights the stable and positive relationship Iran has maintained with China’s leadership, as well as China’s role as the largest importer of Iranian oil. Having recently faced considerable external pressure, Iran now needs more international support to uphold justice and legitimacy, whether in the United Nations, the International Atomic Energy Agency, or on issues such as the Israeli-Palestinian conflict in the Middle East. In these arenas, China is well-positioned to serve as an important voice and source of support.

Amid broader conflicts in the Middle East, the SCO also has the potential to play a constructive role. I expect Iran to benefit significantly from participating in this summit and to feel both understood and supported by China. Tehran may well come to recognise that with China’s involvement, the international order can be made more secure. In my view, in a multipolar world, the SCO can play a bigger role in advancing peace, promoting development, and fostering integration. I therefore have high expectations for the upcoming SCO Tianjin Summit.

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